What a strange day Friday is shaping up to be. Many markets are essentially closed but the NFP comes out. The market will be thin and as a result it will probably be dull but could move somewhere unexpected in the run up and after the news.

In my memory the market has done some strange things on low volume on holidays (as noted on Jan 7 in https://atoast2trading.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/holiday-volumes-and-gapping/).

Here is the composite as the market stands today:

Factually: the last 2 days are right between High volume nodes 1388.5 and 1396. The market is filling in the low volume area that was at 1394. The micro composite point of control and midpoint are at 1392.5 / 1393.5. It looks to be getting well balanced in the middle (this may signal a move to imbalance). I have highlighted 1387-1396 as it contains a lot of levels of interest.

Observations: Note how the price has held within the Value Area, not really venturing into value area low 1371-1386.5. If 1386.5/1388.5 continues to hold and the news is good then I can see a move to 1403/1405 HVN/VAH (might be Sunday night or Monday). If that happens then 1409 and another test of the resistance of of the highs at 1415.5 next week.

If the news is bad its 1377.25/1380 and extended low at 1371.5 (again, may be Sunday night or Monday).


One thought on “04/05

  1. NFP 120k vs 200k. (strange that EURUSD spike up 50).

    I know I mentioned a lot of levels and was unsure of how to trade but I felt the setup was crazy today with NFP on a holiday!

    Last night I said “If the news is bad its 1377.25/1380 and extended low at 1371.5”

    I came pretty close I must say.

    Close up on todays action – I have marked the price of both sides of the spread at the initial bounce near 77 and the low at 71.5

    rth composite

    composite on 24 hour basis (there goes the FOMC bounce)

    updated at 19.09 BST I just got home from work and I saw an abnormally biggest bar for a 10000 volume candle – intraday

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