NFP in context

thoughts from the front line:

March saw “only” 120,000 jobs created. Expectations were for 200,000 new jobs. It wasn’t all that long ago that any positive number would have been seen as good, but with the last six months averaging 200,000 jobs, this was disappointing. It gives force to the worry that once again we could see the employment numbers get soft during the spring and summer. And adding to interest in the topic, the employment numbers will take on a decidedly political tone this summer, as every poll shows that jobs and the economy is the #1 thing on voter’s minds. This will be underscored only four days before the presidential election on Tuesday, November 6, as the jobs report for October is scheduled to be released on Friday, November 2.

MTS – Historic overnight low in globex:

the algos shift gears:

Friday’s holiday-shortened Globex-only session started with an anemic 34k ESM traded as London and the HFT traders were sidelined due to the holiday weekend and the close of numerous products. Thursday’s day session trading range 1388-1397, with a historic low of 34k volume in an overnight globex of 1394.75 – 1389.50, 5.25 trading range – with a 22 handle morning session of 1394.75 – 1372.00. There was not much trade that followed Friday’s employment data and the very disappointing 120k Non-Farm payrolls resulting in the spike lower equity open. There was chatter of hearing President Obama gasp, but we all know he as well as the wise guys had an advance glimpse of the slowing economic growth – both domestic as well as the continued eurozone contagion. Speculation of further QE stimulus hit the wire shortly after the news, and the metals guys are leaning to further gains. 07:46:27 richcanlione: in Perspective :–Weaker-than-forecast payrolls report suggests the economy “is still not strong enough to create an escape velocity” from the need for Fed support, Tony Crescenzi, Pimco strategist, says on Bloomberg Radio. ? Further assistance may be required: Crescenzi ? “Millions remain unemployed” ? March NFP up 120k (est. 205k) // Following the job-less announcement, the thin holiday markets paved the way lower as the spoos traded down to the 1377 area – testing the FOMC / Ben Bernanke announcement / launch pad last month and bouncing up to test the 1382 area and fail as 1375.25 marked the settle price. 07:58:21 (bshepard) Tom_McEvoy should make for an interesting open sunday night, combined with the chatter of a potential rate cut in china over the weekend… 08:04:32 richcanlione: Confirmation or Rejection ? reflected by 200 Day Avg in 30Yr Yield 3.28.


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