I am considering this move to be a probe out of balance and into the prior area searching for sellers. Sellers are happy to do so at the roadblock that is 1403 HVN and VPOC 04/04-04/05 – There are a lot of stops there from the NFP sell off.
mrtopstep on Friday:
It’s been a long week for a lot of traders. Many of the customers we talk to are still short. With buy stops starting from 1398.70 up to 1404, it’s our guess they take a run at those buy stops. The way we see it is to let the SPM pull back a bit, then buy it. As always, keep an eye on the 10-handle rule and please use stops.
The division between the balances I am looking at is around 1386 and that is my line in the sand. If the market is going to try to take out the highs then this needs to hold.
It is the half way of the last swing high to low and that area was previously being sold hard. For this hypothesis to hold then this resistance should now be seen as support.
Resistance in RED:
R4 1415.75 VPOC 04/02
R3 1411.75 VPOC 03/27
R2 1408/09 HVN & VPOC 04/03
R1 1403 HVN & VPOC 04/04 & 04/05
Support in GREEN:
S1 1392.5-1392.75 – HVN and 2 day vpoc and was resistance but and became support in cash session on Friday.
S2 1386.25-1388.5 – balance crossover area and HVN and VPOC 03/27 & 04/17 – as noted above was resistance – should be support now
S3 1381.5/1382.75 – VPOC 04/20 04/25