I have been moving house over the last week – I kept an eye on the markets but did not have as much time as I usually have to post charts.
This is a longer term chart. Some levels I was looking at came into play this week.
I was pretty in tune with what was going on at the highs – not so sure where we go from here.
on 04/22 I wrote:
I felt the market is balancing between 2 high volume areas – waiting on new information. Perhaps the widening Spanish bond yields may force another “sell in may and go away”. As the benefits of LTRO wear off then a repeat of 2011 may be on the way.
1363/65 – 1388/91 is the current range – value area is between 1367 and 1384 – this may all change.
The market looks to be clinging onto 1377.25 HVN area.
Anything around 1386/88 is being sold.
1363/65 is HVN/MCVPOC and key support.
To summarise what I am saying below and to tie it with previous analysis.
Below 1363/65 = 1355, then 1340.25/1345.25, 1333.5/1336.5
Above 1388/91 = 2012 highs in play
I was bullish above 1363 – it now looks like this 1363 support is providing resistance (04/23)
I noted that 1388 was being sold off but over 1391 brought the highs back into play. How right that was. That area started the ISM upthrust and then the entire break down after the May NFP.
I will be honest and will say that I was reluctant to short after the ISM upmove on 05/02 – after which I said
Intermediate term resistance was at 1403 – I wonder if people will continue to sell this after yesterday.
For the downside I even wrote an individual post about 1340.25 as I felt it was important – it was 1 handle above the low of this week.
The seasonal best months of Nov-April are past and the Eurozone debt crisis sideshow is back this summer.