I dont want to overthink the currencies move but normally lower interest rates should have investors moving their money to look for a better return. Draghi’s first act as ECB president was to cut rates but this was interpreted as a sign of action and therefore bullish.
EURUSD retraced the upmove from last week and came to a stop at the closing levels of May 30 & June 1st. This area is also the yearly low (and Sep 2008 low).
Equities did not see the same retracement and are waiting for new information from today’s NFP but expectations are low (fxstreet.com).
Price is gravitating to 1364 intraday but selling has dominated from 1368/70 (LVN).
ECB price spike to 75 (R2 area):
I am not changing the levels a great deal but I have moved previous R1 to S1. For direction the RTH 1357 area is important on an intraday basis. (HVN / previous high / yesterdays low / yest pivot). Trading above here has been on low volume this week.
With bad NFP and below 1352/1354 could potentially lead to a retrace back to 1337. If it comes to 1328 this area is key for Bulls.
Support below here:
S1. 1352/1354 (moved from resistance to support)
With good NFP 1376, 1382, 1388 (HVN) and extended 1396.5
R4. 1388 (added as is HVN)