Be fearful when others are greedy

and greedy when others are fearful …

Uptrend intact:

uptrend

Technology weak. Consumer sentiment improved. Basic materials the outlier (crude, gas, metals all down). The finviz charts for individual indices show Commitment of Traders, something I have only come across recently on futuresmag.com.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US every Friday at 15:30 Eastern Time. The COT report shows how large speculators, commercials and small traders have placed their bets in the futures markets in terms of open interest information based on the previous Tuesday, and is an invaluable tool you can use to track the market sentiment in currencies, commodities and stock indices. The only limitation of the COT report is that it is three days late, but that doesn’t mean you can’t still use it as a sentiment tool.

(http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=INDICES&p=d1 / http://www.finviz.com/groups.ashx)

My observation is that value appears to be shifting in short term from 1495 to 1505.

es_composite_candles

Template to high from October 10 2007 – It is doubtful that there are any open positions in this area 5 years later but I noticed that this exercise was useful in templating the 1460’s from Oct ’08.

It is interesting how the 2007 LVN has now been filled in. I will keep a close eye on 1511 to see if the same is happening there with potential 1505 as support.

I am concerned that the profile is thin under 1495 to 1472 and even 1462.

2008_2013

Buyers showing conviction and the rally on Thursday was a key moment.

ATR is improving. I am using Volume Price Statistics Delta Above Midpoint in the bottom pane.

es_composite_candles_2

Now, the Euro:

Some continuation selling on Friday but nothing like the day before.

It has come back to test the volume node left behind after the 10 day range at the end of January. I have marked areas of importance and potential scenarios.

Apparently Draghi’s comments suggested a potential interest rate increase due to overvalued euro (something German exporters are not complaining about). Also a bank or fund apparently sold 1 billion Euros before and during the press conference.

euro_composite_trend

Europe is missing from the Finviz list above. FDAX is not making new highs and even had a mini flash crash on Monday due to Spanish and Italian banking corruption issues.

Technically it has created bear flag after bear flag with measured moves. This observation is the inspiration for the title of this post.

dax

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