I watch where value was and is.
Pink line shows Euros value line movement from 1.4 to 1.3, even as price moved to 1.2 in low volume trading last summer (Greece 2, 1.200 was the low in 2010 with Greece 1).
Is it an inverted head and shoulders pattern? – we will see soon if price holds here.
The volume profile on the right of this chart has 2 years of data:
If Euro comes to 1.2650 is a very important test of horizontal support and a HVN. It is ahead of that LVN at 1.24.
I will watch to see if price holds above the medium and recent term value area at 1.270 – the other value area marking is at 1.34 – this is a bit far away for now. Upside was capped by 1.3180/90 in March.
On the upside. The 5 year Volume Mode is at 1.3091 – that is maybe why it was so choppy there. The 200 DMA is at 1.29 also.
This chart shows 5 years of data – note the volume mode at 1.3090. The 50% retracement of the last major high/low swings are at 1.37 – the top of the longer term value area – dont see the Euro going there any time soon really, unless Draghi says and does something spectacular on Thursday (or they double QE in the States).
Here is a horizontal view of that 2 year balance. It has a lot of characteristics of normality (or is it normalcy).
Similarly, horizontal view for ES with weekly data rolled to monthly.
DTN is sending me data for 2000 at 1650/1700 – not sure what is going on there. I copied and pasted a bit at the bottom to replicate what it may look like.
Creating this chart corrupts my database almost every time. I would appreciate if anyone reading this can test on their side and let me know if they see this there or if they back adjust by a certain number of points a year? I might just ask them myself.
Looking at this for too long has me seeing the Eye of Sauron Pattern ©
If the pattern continues that ES makes it’s monthly low in the first week of the month, then its +45/60 from there – all things remaining constant that is a potential 1596/1615 for April.