$6E_F – 11/04/13

Back in the old range – 1.3136 was the March Contract level high. On the June contract it is 1.3143 – the Major LVN, todays high.

euro_composite_trend

It could be too much too soon for EURUSD. Flying too close to the sun.

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18 thoughts on “$6E_F – 11/04/13

    • Indeed the note on the chart from March 15th says the same – Euro can settle into a range for what seems like forever (can be 10-12 days) and then breaks on news in a thin market.

      https://atoast2trading.wordpress.com/2013/04/02/market-balance-6e_f-es_f/

      Aces high is the first Iron Maiden song I ever heard and I loved it , the version from live after death with churchill !

      Did you get your euro charts working ? I am trying to roll daily to weekly data (but it will probably corrupt my database) – for a 10 year chart the poc is around 1.32

  1. “the version from live after death with churchill !”

    Ha!! Exactly the same here! My first Maiden record (actually cassette which I listened to in my Walkman) and thus the first song, as it is the beginning of the concert 🙂

    Yes, got my charts working now, and trying to figure out whether or not it makes sense to use various sessions intraday (Tokio, London, NY) or simply watch intraday as on single flow and one 24 hr profile, which I prefer. FT however is using a dedicated chart for NY session only but I am not sure about that as it would go against the composite which by definition includes all sessions…. Anyway, just started with 6e and looking how to best approach this thing…

  2. Good stuff, thanks for the graph. I believe he is skipping other sessions because he is not trading them anyway (not sure however if I understand him 100%) in any case my point is, what if NY is trading in prices that were auctioned earlier – this volume (activity) should not be disregarded as it is real, and refers to the same “object” (6e) as in the NY session (contrary for example to the o/n ES which is *not* the same as the RTH ES (yet even so often does respect profile levels from RTH).

    • I tried to use a LondonOpen-USClose chart with a split session (like I do with ES). It became too confusing – I have been told FX is a London Market (however the chart from Knight capital would tell a different story, London Open and US Open are the key times, also Treasury pit open at 8.20 EST to close at 1400 EST).

      I continue to use 24 hour charts – also, you should build a chart with 1440 minute bars, record the 20 Day ATR into a ‘#v’ and add that to the Intraday LoD (and subtract from HoD) – this gives you expected ranges (currently around 110 pips). Price should aim for it (similar to 20 day ES 20 Day ATR being 15 at present). This is just an observation but will keep you focused!

      The thing I would say to watch out for is that sometimes the European/US sessions can ignore completely what happened in low volume (but news driven) Asian sessions and the Expected Daily Range High + Low need to be adjusted to ignore this period.

  3. here is the 9 year profile (the VPOC is 1.3248 if you include any data from 2009 back to 2004 so may be irrelevant)

    it moved to 1.3088 some time mid 2010 and the last swing high was June 2011 which included this range so that is the modal price as far as I am concerned. Anything below is under-priced and anything above is over-priced 🙂

  4. good thoughts, thank you. your computer must be smiling with this amount of data, lol. I will keep watching the 6e to get a feel for it. ES has been very weird lately, switching between chop which wont even give you a few ticks and brutal trend days, so I want to take a look another market.

    • if you download weekly bars it is instant, it can only calculate 1440 daily bars for 2/3 years

      yes, take it easy with Euro – you should try with $5K if you can ($0.50 a pip!) – depends on your broker but a lot is $100k a pip move will cost $10

      Also, the invisible support and resistance on any chart – longer terms ATR – prior month and 3 and 6 month ranges

    • I did a lot of study to see if NY continues European session, results were 50:50

      You have to think in longer time-frames: ES will have many day traders / hft’s that finish the day flat. On FX buying and selling takes a little longer (but is dominated by the same players and concepts).

      Having said that there are Volume Profile ideas that will be familiar to you with 6E that you learned with ES: look how prior VPOC was Support for some low volume up days and then Resistance today:

      Also, see how the decline in upside volume + the distribution pattern + double top + P profile gave clues at the important level from the early March balance (first image on this post!)

      I get an email every time you post an update on your blog btw 🙂

    • Mar 28 had trade,
      Mar 29 has almost 0 volume and no movement – good friday / karfreitag – musste in wb schauen!

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