$ES, $EUR Observations – August 9th 2013

Euro and ES have looked difficult to trade, a few wild news movements and many low volume chop days however some really nice technical moves.

There were some nice hollow candle trending moves this week.

Here is a chart I made in mid-July. I was watching for re-entry to the red zone.

Euro_short_term_Out

It reacted off higher timeframe levels. There were and are still some things in the way. Price created a HVN at 1.3383 during the last major downswing and was a key breakout zone in January during the Euros joke move to 1.37.

There is also a downward trend line I had drawn from the last 2 major swing highs. You can bet a lot of others see it too and some others see the key horizontal level also.

EuroLongTermBalance

I decided to look at the commitment of traders for it – commercials are long and are profitable.

3_month_eurodollarfutures

ES is doing a back and fill.

Overnight came off key areas and dvpoc moved up.

back_and_fill

Yesterday left a P shaped profile. Too top heavy and nobody really looking to buy there.

main_2013_atr_globex

I saw a lot of selling at last nights close. Price ping-pong off developing vpoc 1682 which moved UP to 1687.

1695/1702 key above.

MLow+M3Range = 1753
MHi-M3Range = 1618.

COT:

sp_cot_august

Are the minority retailer group driving the market? I don’t know who these commercials are but they seem to be hedging while retailers continue to buying heavily at a ratio of 5:3 long:short.

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