Mark was saying that trading it is like trying to steal a lions dinner.
I want to share a clip of whales hunting a seal. It seemed strange to me that such formidable killers would need to join forces to attack something relatively small however that is how it works.
This type of thing, trying to tip a seal off some floating ice, reminded me of the price action on Friday near the highs.
One thing I learned is that when the big players are trying to sell they will ‘induce’ other sellers into buying higher, i.e running their stops and turning would be sellers into unlucky buyers. This is especially true in FX during what is known as “The London Fakeout” where someone may have billions to fill and can only do this by taking price below lows or above highs where the liquidity is located.
Look at the following chart, the 1781 area was my target from the long side, volume was 40% above avg which moved the projected ATR to around 85/86.
1783.75 was the prior Equity index close (4.15 PM EST), there was a HVN at 1786 and very importantly 1788.75 was the prior cash close.
This behavior reminds me of killer whales tipping a seal off a floating ice pack and eventually dragging it down by the tail.