I am sharing my weekly homework. I hope it is of use to someone.
This should really be 3 separate posts on FX, Indicies and Gold but I will leave them together.
There are a number of common things that seem to me to tie market activity together from the higher time frames to the lower time frames.
How do you think the market got people to buy the high? By people shorting a quiet range on Thursday only to be forced to cover near the close and buying from someone who wanted to sell to them at ATH’s.
This concept applies to everything in the charts below.
1. FX and EUR/USD vs US Dollar Index:
basic idea I was watching to see play out since December:
In the meantime Dollar Index vs Crude Oil.
COT vs USD as of now: commercial closing of shorts and leveraged money chasing drove price higher:
EURUSD and the 1.1060 – 1.1360 area that I was watching to be filled in (recent range), older ranges marked in cyan blue. Note FX futures delta and volume on lower panes. This has an oscillation which is worth watching (FX futures only a small % of FX volume but at least it is reported).
Look at that failure of the 1.12 area on thurs/friday resulting in long liquidation.
ES daily chart with prior range (with top 2112) and current range with POC 2124:
Weekly chart with reduced monthly ATR plotted from monthly low to the 2130 area I was looking for https://twitter.com/atoast2trading/status/586254583648890880
COT data: Leveraged money chasing higher, commercial money non committal and both net negative (as can be seen by the last 8 days of declining volume (wed-fri not being included in the COT data for the last week).
I will post this DAX chart here as the 11900 remains the key hurdle providing overhead supply resistance:
There is a danger with only tracking speculative positions using this from investing.com:
You would think that you should follow them and get long gold and cut your ES shorts.
The other side is not reported there and in actual fact something interesting is happening in Gold. There are some bigger moves happening and producer/hedger are indeed happy to hedge more aggressively short at anything > 1200 while leveraged money is betting big on a rise. (Producer/hedger is the commercial category, I use that term for commodities. Who do you think knows more about the expected price of gold?) – this is not new (https://twitter.com/atoast2trading/status/591609484633575425
In the last report they have gone from -80000 to -140000:
The last major shift of this size this year saw prices drop dramatically by $130 in January.