The last week had :
FOMC holding rates and they finally publicly concede there is lower US growth.
Greek crisis continuing and talk of accidental Grexit but eventually Greece given more time it seems.
Effects of Russian sanctions on European (particularly German) exports.
Contract roll and Options expiry.
Basically very tricky to trade and tough to figure out how it all looks at present.
ES: Non Commercials have gone from Net short -138527 to Net short -223836. This is a pretty large move in 1 week. As I have been saying Open Interest peaks just before expiration.
It is similar in magnitude to that shift last year in March which saw “a technical sell off” when ES dipped 70 pts. I think the Yellen comments about Biotech being overvalued may have played a role then also.
This may be roll/opex related but going to keep an open mind as may lead to some further selling – especially if euro strengthens and european equities remain inversely correlated and cannot hold last weeks lows.
Leveraged money retreating from short Euro , both com and non comm are at the levels when price was 1.36
Dollar index moving away from extreme in price and positioning.
Gold – no major shifts either side this week, bounce on Friday in price, failure about 1220’s a big warning for Gold.